TECHNOLOGIES THAT MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN CB DEFENSE

Summarized by Dr. Jan Medema
Study Director NATO Long Term Scientific Study (LTSS) *

          From 27 January to 1 February the Multi-National Exercise of the NATO Long Term Scientific Study on CB Defense took place at the TNO Prins Maurits Laboratory in Rijswijk, the Netherlands. A group of 70 experts from 13 NATO countries and 5 NATO commands and panels discussed all aspects of CB defense. The LTSS has a dual purpose:

1. Provide the authorities with an assessment of progress in science and technology over a period of ten to fifteen years and on the impact this progress may have on the military art.
2. To provide research planners with recommendations for research programs in order of priority, probability of success and the amount of the effort involved.

          Reviewing the conclusions and recommendations of the LTSS there appear to be two dominant technologies that have an impact on CB defense: biotechnology and computer-technology. Biotechnology comprises all the aspects of biochemistry, molecular biology, cell biology, genetic engineering, etc. Computer technology especially aims at the management and rapid processing of large amounts of information.
          The advances in Biotechnology could be explored for rapid production of large amounts of toxins in genetically modified common microorganisms. This could take place in a dual use facility and would facilitate the breakout of a disarmament treaty. The technology will most likely also be applied to develop new, more nasty, biological weapons, with increased storage life, surviving dissemination, persistent in the environment, highly virulent, difficult to diagnose, resistant to antibiotics and contagious. As Matthew Meselson said "It is not only possible to destroy life but also to manipulate it, including such processes as thinking, development, reproduction and the very means by which traits are passed from parents to offspring". Racial selection, age selection, in short every property determined by the genes can be used as target.
          As a consequence the effect levels of a large variety of agents have to be investigated. Advances in biotechnology might offer possibilities to find common factors for the actions of toxins and infectious diseases, or to estimate human effect levels in alternative ways. (Alternatives other than animal testing).
          Advances in biotechnology might offer several possibilities for improved detection. However, it might become necessary to cover a large diversity of agents. This would require large arrays of sensors, biochips and rapid information processing to give a timely warning. Here the second technology comes into play. Improved computer technology might also offer advantage for prediction of hazard areas and warnings down wind of a release. The hazard prediction should be based on probabilistic models, the probability of being hit by a cloud, rather than the present day deterministic models (Gaussian plume), which represents an average of a large number of releases. The cloud pattern of every individual release could well be very different from this average. Finally the large variety of agents will require the development of generic (based on physical principles) detection techniques, which must derive the selectivity from data processing and comparing with libraries at maximum speed. There is no technology identified for survey of terrain.
          The main effect of biotechnology in physical protection is the improved protection that masks have to offer. CAD/CAM techniques will improve the development of better masks and clothing. Computational flow dynamics might help in developing better-fitted clothing. The developments are more of an evolutionary nature. Many of the technologies mentioned in the present studies were already announced more than a decade ago and have not matured. Breakthroughs in technology are not foreseen in this area. In the area of physical protection there is a strong demand for small light energy supplies for cooling and ventilation. Technologies should be developed to use human generated energy to cool and ventilate a person in full protection.
          The advances in biotechnology will have a profound effect in the area of medical countermeasures. For one it will be necessary to develop treatments for many more agents and diseases. Particularly the last part might be beneficial for civilians in developing countries. Again because of diversity there is a strong demand for looking at generic aspects of diseases and how to fight them. It is worrisome that, as in the chapter on effect levels, there are few alternatives for animal testing. Extra efforts would be required to find acceptable alternatives. Biotechnology might offer advantages here.
          Contamination control has not seen many developments in improved technologies over the past decade nor is it expected to see those in the future. It must be done in a more environmentally friendly way. There are, however, no technologies identified for cleaning large surfaces, such as seaports and airbases. The burning questions: "How dirty is clean enough?" and "How can it be measured?" still remain open. Application of CAD technologies in the design of equipment might lead to easier and improved decontamination.
          Four technologies have been identified to improve training trough simulation: Constructive Simulation, Virtual Simulation, Distributes Interactive Simulation and Live Simulation. Computer technology has advanced to such a state that most of this simulations can be arrived at today.
          Due to the large variety in agents from TICs, CWA, toxins and BWAs, and, the spectrum might become broader. In the future more generic countermeasures are required, most likely they will be based on physical principles. However, in the detection and medical countermeasures selectivity to discriminate between good and bad is essential. This has to be introduced in another way, e.g., by using biochips and rapid data processing or finding common factors for diseases or intoxication. On the other hand some of the proposals in the physically based areas of protection and contamination control are aiminedat highly selective reactions, such as the use of enzymes. These might work for some specific applications but will in general not give the required generic contribution.
          The results of the LTSS will be discussed with NATO and Partners for peace countries, during a symposium in early September 2002 in Delft, The Netherlands.
          For information contact the organizers at the TNO Prins Maurits Laboratory: Dr Matt Leeuw, Phone +32152843512, Fax + 31152843963, e-mail leeuw@pml.tno.nl or Dr Leo de Jong Phone +31152843542, Fax + 31152843963, e-mail jongl@pml.tno.nl

Ed. Note: Dr. Medema notes that these results represent the opinions of the experts involved in the exercise and do not necessarily represent the opinion of any NATO country.